Lib Dems winning in the real polls
March 18th, 2008
Kicking off his campaign for London Mayor, Brian Paddick, pointed to the election polls showing the Liberal Democrats are winning the majority of votes cast in London by-elections since he was selected to run for Mayor in November 2007.
On these by-election votes the Liberal Democrats stand a full 8% ahead of their nearest rivals with 39% of the vote, followed by the Conservatives with 31% and Labour with just 25%
So far, by-elections have taken place in Boroughs including Southwark, Haringey, Harrow, Leyton, Camden, Sutton and Brent.
“The only polls that matter are the ones on polling days”, said Brian, “and these show that the Liberal Democrats are winning across London. The London election is a two-horse race - between me and Boris. The way the voting system works means I am the only candidate who can beat Ken Livingstone.
“I have the capability and leadership to deliver real change. I have 30 years experience improving people’s lives and fostering trust amongst our communities. Londoners want a clean pair of hands they can trust running their city. Londoners want Brian Paddick on May 1st.”
The voting system Brian refers to is the Supplementary Vote system by which London Mayors are elected. This means that people select both their first and second preference for Mayor, and if no candidate receives 50% of first preference votes then the first and second of the top two candidates are added together to decide the winner.
It is the nature of Boris’ support which makes him unlikely to be able to defeat Ken. Opinions on both Boris and the Conservative party tend to be more polarised so unless people feel strongly enough to put Boris as their first preference they are unlikely to put him as their second preference. The Conservative’s poor record in London Mayoral election second preference votes (13.2% in 2000 and 11.6% in 2004) contrasts starkly with the Liberal Democrats record in second preference votes (28.5% in 2000 and 24.3% in 2004). With Brian’s competence and record of effecting change in the police, he is set to continue the Liberal Democrats strong record in offering both a broad appeal to all Londoners and the main challenge to Ken.
